What if California seceded from the US?

Pedro_P

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Secession is extremely improbable. But looking at what could ensue if it happened underscores some fascinating truths about the US – and where power really lies.


▼ Americans have grown increasingly polarised in recent years. According to the Pew Research Center, median Republicans are more conservative than 97% of Democrats, while median Democrats are more liberal than 95% of Republicans. By contrast, in 1994 those figures were just 64% and 70%, respectively. Some scholars argue that ideological tensions have never been greater in living memory.
“We have to go back historically, to something like the 1890s post-Civil War period, to find politics in the US that are anywhere near as bitterly polarised as we have now,” says Bernard Grofman, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine. “Polarisation in Congress is at levels we have not seen in more than 100 years.”
California is no exception. For the past few years, divides both within the state, and between California and the rest of the US, have sparked at least six initiatives aimed at breaking California into smaller states or cleaving it entirely from the rest of the country.
According to Monica Toft, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University in Boston, arguments in support of these plans include the belief that the federal government no longer represents California’s economic interests; that the state is so large that proper governance is only possible if applied across a smaller geographic scale; or that irreconcilable differences have emerged between what California and the rest of the US stand for.
To be clear, unless something drastically changes, California is not going to secede any time soon. A constitutional law denies states the right to secession, and there’s scant evidence that the majority of California’s citizens actually want to leave. A 2017 survey of 1,000 Californians conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, found that a bipartisan 68% opposed such initiatives.
Yet exploring what would happen should this improbable event come to pass is still worthwhile for the questions it raises about the precarious balance of power – and politics – in the US.
Civil war?
The possibility of violence, even formal war, is the first and most crucial question for hypothesising what would happen if California tried to leave. Another US civil war may sound unlikely, but consider that the southern US did not expect lasting conflict to ensue when it decided to secede from the north 157 years ago.
It seems unfathomable that the US would have another war of secession, but I think if you talked to people in the mid-19th Century they would have said the same thing – Monica Toft
Civil war did break out, leading to the loss of some 620,000 American lives and shaking the country to its core. “It seems unfathomable that the US would have another war of secession, but I think if you talked to people in the mid-19th Century they would have said the same thing,” Toft says. “The US is not immune to this.”
Other splits throughout history sparked violence too. Pakistan responded with genocide and mass rape when Bangladesh decided to become a separate nation in 1971, while Eritrea’s War of Independence from Ethiopia dragged on for 30 years.
It doesn’t always play out this way; some countries have pulled off peaceful secessions. In 1993, in what is known as the Velvet Divorce, the Czech Republic split from Slovakia with no resulting bloodshed. And despite tough talk between the EU and UK, Brexit is proceeding peacefully.
Whether the US opted to try to forcibly prevent California from leaving would largely depend on who was leading the country at the time and how they felt about secession, says Stephen Saideman, an international affairs professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada. “Republicans might actually say ‘good riddance’, whereas Democrats might say ‘we’ve gotta keep California or we might be marginalised forever’,” he says.
Unlike in the US Civil War, however, there is no fundamental issue like slavery to inflame the divide, and most scholars agree that there is just too much shared identity between California and the rest of the US to imagine a scenario in which war breaks out.
“Californians are not akin to the Kurds in Iraq, the Catalans in Spain or even the Scots and Irish in the UK,” says Brendan O’Leary, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “I cannot foresee generals from the Pentagon obeying orders to go occupy California by force.”
Power politics
Following California’s peaceful secession, though, Democratic fears would come true. (▪ ▪ ▪)

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warlikeprince

This is just hypothesis. I don't think it will never happen...

Rhett_Bassard

warlikeprince 31-5-2019 10:40 PM
This is just hypothesis. I don't think it will never happen...

Your double negative indicates you believe secession could happen. Of course it could.
I read @Pedro_P 's contribution above as an intro to discussing whether it "should" happen.
I believe California should secede and add more than "never" to the discussion:
- California is already a poorly maintained border and harbors many illegals. Let them deal with the issue independently and with ensuing costs, I believe California might come to their senses and resolve.
- California exploits the environment, letting stupid humans build on fault lines, on highly eroded shorelines and within areas naturally susceptible to brush fires. Let an independent California come to their senses rather than tax the remainder of the US for their foolishness.
- California exploits the water of other States and Mexico, e.g. the Colorado River. Let an independent California purchase water until they figure out sustainability, e.g. resolve uncontrolled population and improve upon de-sal from their Pacific Ocean resource.


#NeverSayNever

Pedro_P

As I usually say, not everything that is possible is probable and not everything that is unlikely is impossible... Is it possible for California to become independent? It is, but how likely is that to happen? If it has a little chance, then it could eventually happen.
However, I think it is easier for California to become independent than for Barcelona doing the same... European countries would not tolerate an independent Barcelona and they have threatened with strong economic sanctions to Barcelona if they decides to go down that road.
But, California would only have the opposition of the USA. and I do not believe that the United States Government applies economic sanctions to California in the event that that state embraces its independence. Very likely a military intervention would take place that would stifle these independence aspirations.
Puerto Rico, Hawaii or Alaska would have greater odds than California, although very remote.
But, why project so much in those pro-independence sentiments ?, The most likely thing is that Trump is not re-elected and everything returns to calm and good sense returns to the White House...