“Human life on earth may be on theway to extinction, in the most horrible way.”
Climatechange could cause civilization-ending impacts by 2050, according to a newreport from Australia-based think-tank Breakthrough National Centrefor Climate Restoration. Thereport argues that the United Nations’ assessments on climate change,which call for a rapid transformation of society, do not go far enough inconveying the risk that humanity faces. By focusing on the “threat multipliersof climate change,” how it can worsen existing geopolitical conflicts andstresses, the researchers argue that it could set in motion devastating chainreactions in the near future. "Thetypes of things they sketch out are consistent with what our own military isthinking," John Reilly, an energy, environmental, and agriculturaleconomist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told GlobalCitizen. "Which is that climate change is a threat multiplier. That'sthe idea that there are these unstable parts of the world, and then you throwin a bad crop year, people are hungry, they riot, they become refugees,countries react negatively to those refugees coming into their country, thatcountry elects a leader who tries to shut the door, it worsens the problem andmaybe you end up with more broad conflicts." "Givenwhere we are, that’s not so hard to imagine happening," Reilly, who wasn'tinvolved in the research, said. Theresearchers describe what the world might look like in 2050 if greenhouse gasemissions continue on their projected trajectory. By2050, global warming could go well beyond the limit recommended by the Parisclimate agreement, even reaching 3 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industriallevels because of accelerating feedback loops. A major feedback loop ishappening the Arctic. As ice melts from warmer temperatures, darker waterappears, which absorbs more sunlight, causing more warming, and more ice melt.Another one is happening in the region’s permafrost, which is releasing methaneas it melts. Cycleslike these are dramatically accelerating human-caused climate change. Ifthe world warms by 3 degrees Celsius, then 55% of the global population couldface lethal heat waves 20 days each year. Worsening heat waves are alreadydevastating countries as diverse as Pakistan and Japan. Air conditioners, fromrefrigerators to the window boxes that cool down rooms, are the biggestsingle driver of climate change. Nearly30% of the world’s land would become arid under these conditions, and food productionin agricultural zones would plummet as precipitation patterns shift. Wateravailability would become scarce for 2 billion people. Extreme storms,including monsoons and hurricanes, will become more common, the reportcontinues. Criticalglobal ecosystems including the Amazon rainforest, coral reefs, and the Arcticwould collapse at this point, the researchers argue. Poor countries that lackthe resources to cope with these changes would become “unviable,” and globalmigration patterns would reach catastrophic levels. Thereport points to calamities that have been partly attributed to climatechange including the Syrian civil war and the European Union migrationcrisis as signs of what's to come. "Thisis how the military thinks through wars," Reilly said. "What are thepossible things that could happen, how might they evolve, and how can weprepare for them. It's a normal way of thinking for different defensethreats and using the same method for climate risks is appropriate." Noneof the report's predictions are new — the researchers are merely emphasizingthe worst-case scenarios of existing climate models, with the understandingthat we’re currently living in the worst-case scenario of earlier climate models. Asa result, the report is an exercise in framing. “There’sno question that the impacts from climate change will be very severe —they're already being felt,” said David Doniger, the senior strategicdirector of the Natural Resource Defense Council’s climate and clean energyprogram. Doniger wasn’t involved in the report, and spoke to Global Citizenabout the overall risk of climate change without commenting directly on thereport. “It’sa major threat to the stability of our civilization and our way of life and oureconomies and the future of our children and grandchildren,” he added. “Itdoesn’t have to be the total ‘end of human civilization,’ but it’s a superserious threat.” RuthDeFries, professor of ecology and sustainable development at ColumbiaUniversity, agreed with Doniger. “Froma brief glance [at the report], I will say that climate change is an enormousthreat with far-reaching impacts on food, water, cities, health, and nearlyevery aspect of life,” she said. “But the end of human civilization is far frominevitable if leaders throughout the world address the problem with theseriousness it deserves.” Theauthors of the report say that countries need to pursue net-zero emissions asrapidly as possible. The Paris climate agreement calls on countries to avoidwarming of more than 2 degrees Celsius, which would require greenhouse gasemissions to stop accumulating in the atmosphere by 2030. Nocountry in the world is remotely close to achieving this target— electricity grids and vehicles are currently dependent on fossil fuels.As a result, the researchers argue that an emergency mobilization of resources“akin to World War II” is needed to transform human society. “We’regoing to need to invest in rebuilding our forests, building technologies thatsuck carbon dioxide out of the air, we have too much already, let alone theincreases that are coming year by year," Doniger said. Inrecent years, countries have taken decisive steps to combat climate change,including adopting the Paris agreement and the Kigali amendment, butDoniger said that the United States has potentially jeopardized this momentumby rolling back key climate regulations and attacking global coalitions. “There’ssomething clarifying when you have such regressive political leadership in theUS,” he said. “It puts the question much higher up in people’s minds, andclarifies what are you for and what are you against. [Climate change] is nowshowing up as a concern in all the polling the US, across all age groups,regions, people of all parties. “Thecoming home to roost of extreme weather, and these blockbuster climateassessments, these are things that push climate change up in the consciousnessof most Americans,” he added.
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