S-400: India missile defence purchase in US-Russia crosshairs.

ssangra

Pls do see the DW report on arms sale by French. Their economy is suffering and only defence is in a better shape. They sell arms to countries and train their forces and earn heaps on it. At times they sell these to countries where there are human right violations also. Obviously India is having a govt that is treading where fools fear to tread and now after aggravating border tensions they wanted to buy nuclear warhead carrying rafale which is going to cause arms escalation in this region. France is happy to sell these..Germany and EU nations are not totally on their side on this. However France is clear that they will sell and frankly they will lie to sell. They r reputed  to sweeten the deals by kickbacks . India is having sufficient capability to make these weapons if the brightest minds are applied but the fools in the parliament wont allow anyone with an average mind capability above theirs to survive so they prefer buying by wasting dollars as that way they hv a reason to earn individually. No one is bothered abt the defence forces....if they were so many young innocent men would not get killed like sitting ducks... every day one aircraft crashes .....sorry but I dont see a single thing thats helping

kaustubhkirti

It would be great if you take a balance judgement of the arm import that India does. India imports nearly 14% of the total global arms exports between 2011-2015 as per Stockholm peace research institute.
There are various reasons why we need it -

1) Lack of manufacturing capability - It is a fact infact the cost of indegenous Tejas is so high that you cannot use it
2) Lack of human resource and R&D - R&D spending is meagre 0.7% GDP that too in medical field. most of the bright minds take up opportunities in US/ Europe
3) Strategic Interests - Buying also promotes good relations in geopolitics. Secondly countries like Israel, France, Russia and US are selling us arms is a clear message of their tilt towards India. for example  - India cannot tolerate Russia selling high end arms to Pakistan which is does not and similarly US never sells us high technology like the recent drones of Israel are better than US Guardian Drones
4) Promote local manufacturing - 50% of the cost is usually offset in the country thorough local SMEs so if you spend 100$ , 50$ contract comes to India which is big source of MSME manufacturing promotion
5) Minimum Credible Deterrence- China and Pakistan are actual threat not militarily but because of the diversity and disunity in India and its neighbourhood. There are so many factions and it is very easy to fan sentiments and make people fight. In order to keep the foreign intervention in check it is important that local security is kept at the highest level
6) Specification of the army is also very specific which usually DRDO and other local Ordinance factories are not able to fulfill. This was pointed out by the Dhirendra Singh Commitee and the Sheketkar Commitee. This has one of the big reason of logjam between army, defence ministry and local factories. As a result foreign made equipments (tried and tested) are preferred.

India is a country of 130 cr people and there has never been such a large "poor democracy". Australia is 2 cr, Germany 8 cr France 6 cr . they are all small nations. Together with Bangladesh , Pakistan and India the total population of the subcontinent is 170 -180 cr. So imagine the level of security implications and the high degree of freedom So respect the army and the military capability being acquired.

Would post arguments supporting you soon. It is a multidimensional topic you can never stop at one viewpoint .

kaustubhkirti

ssangra 8-10-2018 02:33 PM
The biggest shock to me was why the deal was done when the dollar rate was overboard....is it that t ...

You can only comment on rupee valuation of the transaction if you know the following things -
1) Standard negotiated cost of the product in international market
2) Repayment schedule over the next few years

Delivery will start after 2020 and the payment is usually staggered made after that. There is always some moratarium attached in which you can delay the payment.

Therefore the value of dollar has nothing to do with it. For better comparison try to analyse how much China, Syria and Turkey spent because they have purchased it recently.

It an international product and rantional thinking suggests Russian wont have converted it to Rupeess to find out how much it costs !!!!!

ssangra

kaustubhkirti 31-10-2018 11:45 PM
You can only comment on rupee valuation of the transaction if you know the following things -
1) S ...

Two years down the line u will pay a hell lot more. Considering the state of bankrupcy of ur govt by then if they succeed in bullying RBI to transfer its reserves u will b deeper in debt by then too. Foolish to buy junk when u cud have fostered peace

ssangra

kaustubhkirti 31-10-2018 11:38 PM
It would be great if you take a balance judgement of the arm import that India does. India imports n ...

pt 1 - after 70 years u cant say u have no production capability.
pt 2 - after 70 years u cant say u lose bright minds
pt 3 - there is only need and greed that drive the world....there is nothing like strategic relations. If u have power and money strategic relations become the norm
pt 4 - what prevents u from being better than Israel or USA or Russia ?
pt 5 - MSME local manufacturing is like throwing sand in the eyes .....u see again it is need and greed. The designs always remain with the seller. MSME does not get them ...they get only unconnected parts and the phirangis are well versed in how to give u stuff to make. They are well aware of their IPR and how to protect it unlike foolish Indians. Besides if u cant deliver profits to them or quality it does not tk them any time to stop production in your MSME greatness world. So cut out the crap pls and get real. Slavery is not manufacturing.

kaustubhkirti

ssangra 1-11-2018 01:35 AM
Two years down the line u will pay a hell lot more. Considering the state of bankrupcy of ur govt  ...

You connect two different things which are not related.

1) RBI is sitting on a reserve of Rs 5 lakh cr
2) RBI is not a soveriegn democratic elected body and not answerable to the people.
3) RBI is an institution of the state.
4) Internationally Federal Banks keep reserves up to some % of GDP , RBI keeps more because previous governments have never tried to take that money.
5) Starting from Atal Bihari appointed YV Reddy, SUbbah Rao, Raghuram and URjit Patel pressure has increased to listen to whip of the government reason being India is becoming big due to globalisation and role of RBI is bigger

Key sources of contention between the two-
1) RBI powers as a payment regulator - you can argue both sides. Ratan Watal commitee has recommended taking those power from RBI because anyway there are so many functions already with RBI it is difficult to manage
2) RBI control over Public Sector Banks to be curtailed especially in appointment - This is a serious issue and RBI should be given more power. However if you see the recent challenged in IBC and the implementation of Shashakt plan to solve insolvency at the corporate level - RBI knew government was right in bringing that
3) RBI reserves - I am not learned enough to give technical judgement on this. There is a chapter in Economic Survey 2017 that is about this in which Arvind Subramanium talks of using this money and compared it with other central banks you may refer to it.

Balanced juddgement is bliss. This is no way related to the S - 400 deal.

kaustubhkirti

ssangra 1-11-2018 01:45 AM
pt 1 - after 70 years u cant say u have no production capability.
pt 2 - after 70 years u cant say ...

I think in all the points you are supporting my points. India is just a 70 years old country an example of a young democracy which was poor when it was created.

A young democracy with so many factions that the growth always would be at snails pace.

Now I will give points why we should not purchase these high end defence equipments -

1) Deterrance Capability - these equipment are only used as detrrance and never used
2) Decorative Usage - India is probably the 5th/6th country to have aircraft carriers however there is no need to keep then and they have very high maintanance.
3) Promotes Arms Race in the region especially with Pakistan relying more and more on Chinese military armsand this circle would never stop
4) Diversion of social spending- India spend 6% of GDP on health education and other social sectors and diverting this fund is problematics when your MMR is 140 (target 70) Fertility Rate is 2.3 (target 2.1) IMR is 49 (target 25) similarly UNESCO says 100 % primary education in India would be by 2050, 2065 for secondary and 2085 for higher education if we increase spending on education to 6% of GDP as per Kothari Commission
5) Inequlity in India is the biggest issue because last year as per Oxfam repoort India added 17 billionair making it to 101 but of the total 20 lakh cr added in economy top 1% gained 67% of money. This inequality will go through raining social status and not decorative spending.
6) Not promoting local manufacturing and research - This is definately an issue. Indian local research in defence field has not been able to take off just because nobody is looking at it.

Balance judgement is bliss. Always look at both sides. In al this dicussion we foget giving credit to India to be able to exist as a nation even after 70 years.

There were years of isolation, fight with US , international sanctions worse than Iran like during 1965, 1971 and the nuclear blast. Infact during 1971 war American warships entered bay of Bengal and lined themselves from Dhaka to Kolkata and threatened to blow up if we did not step back.

But it was diplomacy that saved India when Russian docked at Vishakhapatnam and said if US touches Kolkata it will not be able to leave Bay of Bengal.

You cannot control what others do and strategic interest help us in managing things. As Henry Kissingner has said - Diplomacy is not about solving disputes it is about managing them. There are no permanent friends or enemies, it is only our interests that are perpetual and enternal. Cheers